A Rough Beginning to 2008
Economic concerns and soaring energy prices combined to whipsaw the stock market during the first quarter of 2008. While this is not the first quarterly pullback stocks have experienced since the beginning of the latest bull market in late 2002, it is the most severe. The bond market posted gains as interest rates dropped in response to the slowing economy. There are many questions being asked about the capital markets and we will do our best to answer the most common ones.
Are we in a bear market like the one that lasted from 2000 through 2002? While it is impossible to know what will happen in the future, we are confident that this is not a secular bear market like that one was. Over the past one hundred years, we have only experienced three secular bear markets and they have all come after historic bull markets that drove valuations to record levels. Going into this slowdown, valuations have fallen an unprecedented 50% from the record levels seen in 2000. This should provide a cushion to stock prices.