Quarterly Letters Letter Archive
June 2010
Stocks Retreat
After four straight quarters of stock market gains, the market sold off during the second
quarter as economic data showing troubling signals from housing and jobs fueled fears
that the economic recovery may be in jeopardy. An unexpected drop in consumer
confidence also spooked the markets. Economic recoveries rarely happen in a straight
line and slowdowns in growth during recoveries are not unusual. Whether this is a bump
in the road to recovery or the end of the recovery itself remains to be seen.
March 2010
The Recovery Continues
By any measure, 2009 was an amazing year for investors. The stock market, as measured
by the S&P 500, gained 26% for the year. This was the second best year of the decade
and the eleventh best year in the past fifty years. It is doubtful that many of you reading
this would have predicted these results back in March, when we were at the depths of a
very painful bear market. In fact, from the market lows in March, the stock market
gained over 67% through the end of the year in what has been one of the steepest post
bear market rallies in history.
December 2009
2009 Year End Review
By any measure, 2009 was an amazing year for investors. The stock market, as measured
by the S&P 500, gained 26% for the year. This was the second best year of the decade
and the eleventh best year in the past fifty years. It is doubtful that many of you reading
this would have predicted these results back in March, when we were at the depths of a
very painful bear market. In fact, from the market lows in March, the stock market
gained over 67% through the end of the year in what has been one of the steepest post
bear market rallies in history.
[download pdf file]
September 2009
Should I Stay or Should I Go
Is now the time to buy stocks that are well off of their highs? Is now the time to take
profits out of stocks after a big rally? Many investors have been asking these questions
as the stock market has been experiencing a strong rally since early March. The bond
market has also rallied as credit quality has improved after the crash of last fall. While it
is nice to look at your statements and see higher balances, it means little unless the
economy continues to improve and we see improved corporate earnings in the future.
We will review the performance of the stock market and the economy and offer our best
forecast on what the future holds.
[download pdf file]